58. Marine Flora Climate Impacts

Organised by Thomas Wernberg of Edith Cowan University, to be held at Adelaide University and Network Headquarters, Sydney. First meeting 21-23 May, 2009 at Adelaide U. Second meeting 27-31July, 2009 at Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Sydney

PARTICIPANTS INCLUDE Thomas Wernberg (Leader) - Edith Cowan U, WA - algal ecology, impacts of climate change on termperate reefs Frederico Gurgel - State Herbarium, SA - algal taxonomy, marine phylogeogrtaphy and molecular systematics Sean Connell - U Adelaide - marine ecology, macroecology and biogeography, human impacts Mads Thomsen - National Environment Research Network, Denmark - invasive algae and dispersal ecology, global change, metanalysis and large data bases Bayden Russell - U Adelaide - climate change ecology and marine chemistry Corey Bradshaw - SA Research and Development Institute - ecological modelling and conservation biology Elvira Polaczanska - CSIRO - modelling, climate change and species range shifts Miguel Araújo - Spanish Research Council/Oxford U - modelling, biogeography, conservation biology Participants at Second Meeting Wernberg, Gurgel, Thomsen, Connell, Bradshaw, Russell, Poloczanska

May 09 > July 09 >

GOAL

The aim of this working group is to project a range of possible climate-driven changes to the distribution and diversity of the temperate marine flora of Australia, the most species-rich in the world.

The working group brings together what is probably the world’s most comprehensive dataset on the distribution of seaweeds on any continent, and scientists with skills in macro-ecology, algal ecology and taxonomy, climate change and conservation biology and species-distribution modelling. Collectively, our group has strong capabilities to produce projections on the likely impact of global warming on the distribution and diversity of the marine flora of southern Australia. WG 47 compiled data from herbarium records on the distribution of all species of temperate macroalgae in Australia. This data base contains ~80,000 geo-references records for ~1,500 species.

The idea is to use a suite of spatial linear models to correlate species’ presence with oceanographic conditions (mainly sea surface temperature, current speed/direction, primary productivity, bathymetry and seasonal variance in temporal predictors). Species ensembles will be multi-dimensionally scaled and subjected to analogous models to examine assemblage responses. Model-averaged predictions of species’ distributions from climate-moderated biophysical correlates will provide future scenarios of marine flora. This will deliver a quantitative assessment of the magnitude of likely biodiversity change under different scenarios of global warming.

Last Updated March 2009